$NKE Nike Double Bottom Bounce Back to Fib GP

Alert set @$77.38 for Fib GP break Stock back inside the 2024 Candle Downtrend Break

SHORT PLTR

PLTR Put Strategy Plan: 1. DCA INTO PUTS: Target the $74–$79 range for initiating put positions. Use a scaling approach to average down effectively as the price rises. 2. PUT CONTRACT SELECTION: Choose 2-3 month expiration puts (e.g., February/March 2025). Strikes: $65 or $60 puts depending on risk appetite. 3. POSITION SIZING: Start small and scale up with each $1 increase in stock price: Example: 1 contract at $74 2 contracts at $75 4 contracts at $76, and so on. This ensures a meaningful average entry without over-allocating capital too quickly. 4. TARGETS: Short-term Target: $58.45 (first exit zone). Long-term Target: $47 (max profit potential). 5. STOP LOSS: Limit your loss by closing positions if PLTR breaks above $81. Alternatively, cap your total risk at 5% of your portfolio size and avoid adding contracts above your risk tolerance.

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1/29/25 - $amzn - ST buying into $meta print

1/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AMZN ST buying into NASDAQ:META print - i'm going to leave aside valuation at the moment, but to say: NASDAQ:AMZN is not cheap, it's not expensive and in a 1-day context, that doesn't matter - went on a walk after resetting my feet taking some profits on NASDAQ:NXT today (the ST stuff - don't worry fam i still have a warchest of ITM leaps)... and some things occurred to me related to tonight's NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:TSLA prints 1/ none of these companies are going to communicate taking down capex guidance for a few reasons. A) given what just happened this weekend, companies this BIG and LT-thinking need to communicate and act consistently and thoughtfully. perhaps in time, this will be the case, but they won't like say this (they don't even know), and in fact they're incentive is NOT to - which is point B) if say NASDAQ:META says they are taking down capex, but NASDAQ:MSFT isn't... then we're still at the phase where someone is likely seeing something the other isn't - and both will be "wrong" - prisoner's dilemma. furthermore, if you DO plan on taking capex guide down bc you see reason to do this - you would try to convince your "competition" to keep spend high and "waste" this amt such that they haven't figured out what you have AND they're less likely to try and figure out what you have such that you don't say take down capex guide. as u guys know i write my stream of thought... no edits... it's for me, but if it benefits you, great! so hopefully the above makes sense, and if not we can hash out rest in comments. SO! the conclusion here is, that if chip stocks/ e.g. NASDAQ:NVDA (and let's even throw NASDAQ:AAPL in there now, NASDAQ:GOOGL too) are looking for some confirmation even if it's incomplete about capex spend... the result will be net +ve $nvda... and hence, the marginal flows back into biggest stock, into ETFs/passive flows... into Q's... resumes. ...and drum roll... NASDAQ:AMZN is big and benefits flows. The 1/31 $140 calls are cheap b/c earnings IV isn't embedded this week :) BUT WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON, why NASDAQ:AMZN for a second, unrelated reason? - we've seen the consumer IS spending. while they might be virtually bankrupt (not everyone, but lots), credit IS flowing... airlines are crushing, black friday was huge this year, stonks had a good year (wealth effect +ve), the new admin in the US is jobs friendly, people are still riding high as a kite. - so such that NASDAQ:META says "our ad biz is crushing" partially to their own AI efforts (respect!) but also bc incrementally there's more volume bc of consumer... that will translate into NASDAQ:AMZN beat, and the algos will arb this immediately tn. - so while i have a smally flyer on NASDAQ:META into the print (i think they beat, but it's not a big position, just playing the game), i think an equally interesting bet here are ST near the money but still OTM c's on $amzn. let's see. the setup looks interesting and it might be a 60/40, so keeping size small, but i try to take all bets where i think i could have a small edge and size/ risk manage accordingly. V

TSLA Pre Earnings Spread - Short 1/31 400 and Long 2/7 400

TSLA is in a symmetrical butterfly or Iron Butterfly configuration and is awaiting earnings tomorrow evening. It is sitting at institutional support at the bottom of its long term ascending channel flashing a double bottom. The 400 strike is dominant in terms of TSLA open interest with approximately equal open contracts for both puts and calls going out 90 days and the implied volatility of the 1/31 expiry is massive. I deployed calendar put spreads earlier this afternoon that I plan to close tomorrow afternoon. 1/31 400 puts were trading for around $22.00 per contract this afternoon and are massively decaying. This position should be profitable by the open and its breakeven levels are 360 to the downside and 450 to the upside. I assess the probability of a significant move in TSLA before earnings to be minimal and so I'm looking to scalp some IV inflated rapid theta decay for a quick win. I mistakenly believed that TSLA's earnings were the 30th rather than the 29th and so I'm going to get less time on this trade than I would have liked, but, them's the breaks. See associated spread: optionstrat.com

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Catch falling knife BABA

BABA still in downtrend. in market cycle psychology BABA must be at around 73 or 66 to get more retail capitulate their balance. With collaboration of elliot wave (1-5) it can happen I think before CNY BABA still downtrend then sideways in bottom and then up only